美軍航行自由行動逼中國出牌
It was a short, well-flagged mission and no shots were fired. But Beijing has been pitched into uncharted waters over how to respond to Tuesday’s operation in which a US warship challenged its claims in the South China Sea.
這是一個短暫的、預先打過招呼的任務，沒有放一槍一彈。但在如何迴應美國軍艦週二挑戰中國在南中國海領海主張的問題上，中國政府進入了未知水域。
While state media lit up with emotional appeals to nationalism on Wednesday, the official response has so far been muted.
儘管週三的官方媒體充滿了情緒化的民族主義呼籲，但中國政府迄今的迴應相當低調。
“China’s defence ministry is strongly opposed to this act and lodges solemn representations,” was all the military could muster on Tuesday, while the foreign ministry summoned the US ambassador to lodge a complaint.
週二軍方作出的唯一表態是：“中國國防部對此表示堅決反對並向美方提出嚴正交涉，”同時中國外交部召見美國駐華大使提出抗議。
But support seems to be building for a firmer response and one option, alluded to obliquely by one senior official on Tuesday, is to militarise the islands — something Beijing has this far insisted is not its objective.
但支持做出更強硬迴應的觀點似乎逐漸佔據上風，一位高官週二含蓄提到的一個選項是將這些島嶼軍事化——北京方面迄今堅稱，這並非其目標。
“We do not hope that in the end China has no choice but to find that it is indeed necessary for us to accelerate and strengthen our capabilities there,” said Lu Kang, a foreign ministry spokesman.
外交部發言人陸慷表示：“事實上，如果有關方面一再在本地區製造緊張，無事生非，最終也許會使中方不得不得出這樣一個結論，那就是我們確實有必要加強、加快相關能力建設。”
Aerial pictures taken by the US already show airfields and fortifications: on Fiery Cross Reef a 3,000m runway has been constructed that is capable of handling fighter jets. A second such airfield appears to be under construction on another island.
美國的航拍圖片已經顯示出這些島嶼上建有簡易機場和防禦工事：在永暑礁(Fiery Cross Reef)上已經建成了長達3000米、能夠起降戰鬥機的跑道。在另一個島嶼上似乎正在建設第二個此類跑道。
Wu Shicun, president of the Hainan-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, is among those who believe Beijing may choose the militarisation route, stationing fighter planes and warships on the islands.
一些人相信，中國政府可能選擇軍事化路線，派遣戰鬥機和軍艦進駐這些島嶼，總部位於海南的中國南海研究院(National Institute for South China Sea Studies)院長吳士存就是其中之一。
“If America only comes into the South China Sea this one time, then China might only take one-time action. If America decides to frequently enter this region, this will make China feel threatened... will have a reason to militarise the islands in order to ensure their safety.”
“如果美國只是這次進入南海，那麼中國也只會採取一次性行動。如果美國決定頻繁進入該地區，就會讓中國感到威脅……他們將有理由軍事化這些島嶼以確保安全。”
Richard Bitzinger of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore concurs. “I don’t think the Chinese need much excuse to militarise the islands,” he says. “The escalation so far has been chiefly on their side. They will wait to see how often the US does this and for how long, and whether other countries, such as Japan, get involved.”
新加坡拉惹勒南國際研究院(S Rajaratnam School of International Studies)的理查德畢辛格(Richard Bitzinger)對此表示贊同。他說：“我不認爲中國人需要很多借口才會軍事化這些島嶼。事態是否升級迄今主要取決於他們這邊。他們將拭目以待，看看美國採取這種行動的頻度和持續時間，以及日本等其他國家是否捲入。”
Others see less bellicose outcomes. Gary Li of Beijing-based consultancy Apco Worldwide sees China finding a “face-saving and de-escalatory path” out of the confrontation — if the US makes no further incursions.
其他人則認爲不會出現劍拔弩張的結果。北京安可顧問公司(APCO Worldwide)的加里丠(Gary Li)認爲，中國將找到“既保全面子又不會升級事態的方法”擺脫對峙——如果美國不再進一步靠近的話。
“The islands are always going to be militarised to an extent. But the difference is whether there are 10 guys living in houses with stilts, or several hundred guys in reinforced bunkers with fighter planes,” he said.
他說：“這些島嶼本來就會在某種程度上軍事化。但不同之處在於，是10個人住在高架房裏，還是數百人駐守在加固掩體裏，還配備有戰鬥機。”
Much will hinge on the next US move and whether or not it targets other countries, which would demonstrate impartiality.
事態在很大程度上取決於美國的下一步的舉措，以及它是否針對其他國家——進入其他國家人造島周邊水域將表明美國是不偏不倚的。
Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie Tsinghua Centre in Beijing, says: “The fact that [the US] hadn’t operated near the features in question since 2012, and are now doing so after a period of heightened tension in US-China relations over this issue, likely contributes to China’s perception that the primary US goal here is to target them.”
卡內基-清華中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)主任韓磊(Paul Haenle)表示：“美國自2012年以來沒有在相關島嶼附近執行任務，而現在在美中在這個問題上關係緊張了一段時間後採取這樣的行動，這很可能讓中國認爲，美國的主要目標是針對他們。”
