中國官方爲大規模裁員做輿論準備
China’s annual parliamentary session convenes this week amid a sombre Mood that recalls the late 1990s: an era of economic ructions, rising debt, currency jitters and talk of mass lay-offs.
中國將在本週舉行年度人大會議。當前的黯淡情緒令人回想起上世紀90年代末期：那是一個經濟動盪、債務上升、匯率波動和大規模裁員成爲討論話題的時代。
Zhu Rongji, the economic tsar who helped steer the economy through that transformative period, was bold. On his watch 30m were laid off, hundreds of state-owned enterprises privatised and thousands more consigned to history.
當年駕馭中國經濟渡過那個轉型期的總理朱鎔基十分果敢。在他主管經濟期間，3000萬人下崗，數以百計的國有企業私有化，還有數千家國企成爲歷史。
The National People’s Congress, which kicks off this weekend, will see whether China’s leaders are up to the task this time. Premier Li Keqiang has prepared the ground: overcapacity has become the mantra in recent months and in the past few days the Communist party has openly started to discuss lay-offs, up to 6m by some estimates.
本週末開幕的全國人大會議將表明中國領導人這一次能否擔當重任。現任總理李克強已經作了鋪墊：產能過剩在近幾個月成爲經常掛在嘴邊的話題，近日共產黨開始公開討論裁員，有人估計下崗人數可能高達600萬。
“Li Keqiang is certainly trying to invoke those times because that was the last time there was a serious reform of state-owned enterprises but now we are such a different cycle,” said Fraser Howie, a China financial markets expert and co-author of Red Capitalism. “Taking such tough action now with all the other issues in China is much, much harder.”
“李克強肯定是在試圖讓人回想起那個時代，因爲那是上一次對國企推行認真的改革，但現在我們處於一個如此不同的週期，”研究中國金融市場的專家、曾與人合著《紅色資本主義》(Red Capitalism)的侯偉(Fraser Howie)表示。“在中國存在種種其他問題的情況下采取這樣的嚴厲行動，難度大得多。”
Fifteen years later, China has come full circle. The SOEs that survived the purge of the 1990s were consolidated and flooded with investment. More than a decade of accelerated economic growth followed, but the same problems have resurfaced as the economy slows.
15年後的今天，中國已經轉了整整一圈。在90年代的洗牌中倖存的國有企業進行了整合，獲得了大量投資。此後迎來了持續10多年的加速經濟增長，但隨着經濟放緩，相同的問題再度浮現。
In a sign lay-offs are no longer completely taboo, Beijing recently tweaked the way it measures unemployment. The official figure has been allowed to creep towards 5 per cent after decades of barely budging from 4 per cent.
突顯裁員不再是絕對禁忌的一個跡象是，北京方面最近微調了其衡量失業率的方式。官方失業率在數十年徘徊於4%的水平後，已被允許向5%漸漸攀升。
Surveys indicate that real unemployment reached well over 20 per cent in many Chinese cities in the late 1990s.
調查顯示，90年代末中國許多城市的實際失業率達到遠高於20%的水平。
“In addressing overcapacity we need to be particularly concerned about unemployment,” Zhu Guangyao, vice-minister of finance, said this week. The cornerstone of Mr Li’s solution is a Rmb100bn ($15.2bn) fund to address job losses to be disbursed over two years. It will first target the steel and coal sectors, the most labour-intensive among the heavy industrial sectors.
“在解決產能過剩方面，我們需要特別關注失業問題，”財政部副部長朱光耀本週表示。李克強的解決方案的基石是一隻1000億元人民幣（合152億美元）的基金，它將在兩年期間發放到位，幫助下崗工人。該基金將首先面向鋼鐵和煤炭行業，它們是勞動力最密集的兩個重工業部門。
This time the labour ministry estimates 1.8m workers could lose jobs, while other estimates go as high as 6m. Steel lobbyists say up to 400,000 jobs could be lost, while just one state-owned coal producer, Longmay, said last autumn it would let 100,000 workers go.
據中國人力資源和社會保障部估計，這一次將有180萬工人下崗，而其他機構估計的下崗人數最高達到600萬。鋼鐵業遊說團體表示，可能失去多達40萬工作崗位，同時只有一家國有煤炭生產企業——龍煤(Longmay)在去年秋天表示，它將讓10萬工人下崗。
Open discussion of lay-offs seems a deliberate strategy to evoke the late 1990s as a signal both to officials and common people that this government is as determined to address China’s problems as Mr Zhu’s. But in those days, economic restructuring was accompanied by China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation, which opened vast new markets. But now, China is the world’s biggest trader, and a tentative US recovery and weak Europe are buying less.
圍繞裁員的公開討論似乎是一個深思熟慮的戰略，目的是喚起人們對90年代末的記憶，從而向官員和普通人都發出信號：本屆政府在應對中國的問題方面與當年的朱鎔基一樣堅定。然而，當年中國在經濟重組的同時加入世界貿易組織(WTO)，從而開闢了廣闊的新市場。而現在，中國已經是世界最大貿易國家，而復甦不穩的美國和疲弱的歐洲減少了進口。
Talk of lay-offs may simply allow local governments to formalise the status of workers who have in effect been unemployed for months, with pay in arrears as mines and mills halt production.
有關裁員的談論可能只是讓地方政府正式確定實際上已經下崗好幾個月的工人們的地位；隨着礦山和鋼廠停產，這些工人的工資被拖欠。
China’s much more diversified economy leaves some of them with more options, although the new jobs are unlikely to be in the most depressed regions. “The lay-off problem this time will not be as severe because society has more capacity to soak up the SOE lay-offs,” says Hu Xingdou, an economist at Beijing Institute of Technology who tracks labour issues.
當今的中國經濟多元化程度高得多，這使其中一些下崗工人面臨較多選擇，儘管新的就業機會不太可能在最低迷的地區出現。“這一次裁員問題不至於那麼嚴重，因爲社會有更多能力來吸收國企下崗工人，”北京理工大學經濟學家、追蹤勞工問題的胡星斗表示。
“The growth of the services industry will make up for the job losses.”
“服務業的增長將彌補這些失業。”
The period from 1998 to 2001 saw mass worker demonstrations that forced China finally to implement a rudimentary social safety net, but corruption and the sorry state of many SOEs meant many former state workers lack adequate health coverage or pensions. The problem was particularly acute in the north-eastern rust belt, which is again one of the regions hardest hit in the current slowdown.
1998年至2001年期間，大規模工人示威迫使中國終於實施一個基本的社會安全網，但腐敗和許多國企所處的糟糕狀態意味着，許多原國企職工得不到足夠的醫保或養老金。這個問題在東北“鏽帶”尤爲嚴重，在當前的經濟放緩中，東北再度成爲重災區之一。
According to one steel industry insider privy to plans for the fund, Beijing will offer subsidies to SOEs willing to close some of their inefficient production lines. For all the brave talk of job losses and capacity cuts, it is not clear it is truly prepared to let companies fail.
根據一位瞭解前述基金相關計劃的鋼鐵業內人士透露，北京方面將向願意關閉一些低效率生產線的國有企業提供補貼。儘管有很多關於裁員和削減產能的果敢言論，尚不清楚北京是否真正準備讓企業倒閉。
