放一百個心 機器人不會反攻人類

Fear of robots, computers, and automation may be at an all-time high since B Movies of the 1950s. Not only is there concern about jobs — even white-collar occupations are vulnerable — but big names in technology have weighed in with their worries.

自從上世紀50年代開始涌現大量以機器人爲主題B級片以來，人類對機器人、計算機和自動化的恐懼已經達到歷史最高水平。這不僅是因爲機器人可能搶走他們的工作（甚至就連白領工作也變得岌岌可危），一些科技界大佬的言論也加重了人們的擔憂。

Philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said, “[I] don’t understand why some people aren’t concerned” about artificial super intelligence that could exceed human control. Physicist Stephen Hawking thinks that “development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race,” as machines could redesign themselves at a rate that would leave biological evolution in the dust. Tesla Motors CEO and technology investor Elon Musk said research in the area could be like “summoning the demon” that is beyond control. Hedonated $10 million to the Future of Life Institute, which sponsors research into how humanity can navigate the waters of change in the face of technology.

微軟聯合創始人、慈善家比爾o蓋茨曾說過：“我不能理解爲什麼有些人不擔心會出現人類無法控制的超級人工智能”。物理學家史蒂芬o霍金也認爲，“任由人工智能無拘無束地發展，可能會招致人類的滅亡，”因爲機器能夠以生物進化絕對達不到的速度重新設計自己。特斯拉公司的CEO、科技投資人伊隆o馬斯克表示，人工智能領域的研究有可能“召喚出人類無法控制的惡魔”。馬斯克最近向生命未來學院捐贈了1000萬美金，這所學院主要研究人類如何平安地在科技變革中生存下去。

That’s one camp.

這是一個陣營。

Then there’s another that says doomsday concerns are overblown and that, like a new age FDR, the only thing to fear is fear itself. These people — technologists, economists, and others — say that the combination of artificial intelligence, automation, and robotics will usher in new, better solutions to world problems.

還有另一羣科學家表示，人工智能帶來的“末日危機”其實被誇大了，就像美國總統羅斯福所說的，唯一值得我們恐懼的就是恐懼本身。支持人工智能的科學家和經濟學家表示，人工智能、自動化和機器人會爲人類世界的各種問題帶來新的、更好的解決方案。

They argue that the fear of technology is old and past experience has proven that while new developments can kill off jobs, they create even more to replace them. Machines could, in theory, replace humans in a wide variety of occupations, but shortcomings in creativity, change, and even common sense are vast, making them unable to in the foreseeable future.

他們認爲，人們對科技的恐懼其實早已存在。以往的經驗表明，人工智能領域的新發展雖然會剝奪一些人的工作，但同時也會創造更多的工作崗位來取代舊的職業。從理論上看，機器雖然可以取代很多種由人類從事的職業，但機器缺乏創新和變革的能力，甚至缺乏常識，這就使得它們在可以預見的未來還無法徹底取代人類。

Instead, these people suggest, robots and computers will work side by side with humans, enhancing productivity and opening new vistas of freedom for people to move beyond the drudgery of current life. In short, the coming years will look like all the ones that came before and society will sort itself out. In fact, a new film “Chappie,” due out March 6, depicts an anti-Terminator view, a world in which robots hold the solutions and humans are the bad guys. “You would have something that has 1,000 times the intelligence that we have, looking at the same problems that we look at,” the director Neill Blomkamp told NBC News. “I think the level of benefit would be immeasurable.”

他們認爲，機器人和計算機將與人類並肩工作，在提高工作效率的同時，還可以爲人類帶來更多自由，因爲它們能夠讓我們免於從事一些累人的苦差事。簡而言之，未來與之前的歲月沒什麼區別，社會完全能夠自我調節。今年3月6日在美國上映的新片《超能查派》就講述了一個“反終結者”的故事，世界要靠機器人來拯救，而人類成了壞人。該片導演尼爾o布洛姆坎普對《NBC新聞》表示：“未來機器人會擁有相當於我們1000倍的智能，如果讓它們來解決我們面臨的問題，我認爲這種好處是難以估量的。”

The swings of show biz reflect a deep concern and disagreement over whether technology holds promise or peril. The question comes down to whether the past necessarily predicts the future or if humankind could be in for a nasty shock. Hopefully the optimists will be able to say, “We told you so.” Here are five voices that say worries are overblown and leaps in technology will bring the human race along with them.

娛樂業在“終結者”和“反終結者”之間的搖擺，反映出人們對科技究竟會帶來福音還是災難這一問題的關注與分歧。歸根結底，問題在於過去的經驗是否必然能反映未來？還是未來的某天會發生令全人類震驚的“大事件”？希望樂觀主義者到時候會說：“我們早說了沒事吧。”以下五位科學家就是這種樂觀主義者，他們認爲人們對人工智能的擔憂完全是杞人憂天，並認爲科技的飛躍必然會促進人類社會的進步。

David Autor

大衛o奧特爾

Professor of Economics and Associate Department Head, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

麻省理工學院經濟學院副院長、經濟學教授

"In 1966, the philosopher Michael Polanyi observed, 'We can know more than we can tell... The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in the theory of the motorcar; the knowledge I have of my own body differs altogether from the knowledge of its physiology.' Polanyi’s observation largely predates the computer era, but the paradox he identified — that our tacit knowledge of how the world works often exceeds our explicit understanding — foretells much of the history of computerization over the past five decades. ...[J]ournalists and expert commentators overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities. The challenges to substituting machines for workers in tasks requiring adaptability, common sense, and creativity remain immense."

“哲學家邁克爾o波蘭尼在1966年指出：‘我們所知道的東西，多於我們所能表達的……駕駛員的技能是再詳細的駕駛理論教學也取代不了的；我對自己身體的認識，與它的生理學實際也有很大區別。’波蘭尼的觀察在時間上要遠遠早於計算機時代，但是他發現的悖論——即我們對世界的隱性知識往往超過了顯性理解——在很大程度上成功預言了過去50年的計算機發展史……記者和專業評論人士誇大了機器取代人力的程度，卻忽略了兩者之間存在極強的互補性。人類從事的許多任務都需要適應性、嘗試和創新能力，機器人要想取而代之，依然面臨巨大的挑戰。”

Jeff Hawkins

傑夫o霍金斯

Executive director and chairman of cognitive theory research organization Redwood Neuroscience Institute, co-founder of Palm Computing, and co-founder of machine intelligence company Numenta

紅木神經科學中心常務董事兼主席、Palm Computing公司聯合創始人、人工智能公司Numenta聯合創始人。

"The machine-intelligence technology we are creating today, based on neocortical principles, will not lead to self- replicating robots with uncontrollable e won’t be an intelligence explosion. There is no existential threat. This is the reality for the coming decades, and we can easily change direction should new existential threats appear."

“我們目前正在創建的機器智能技術基於大腦的新皮質原理，不會催生有意識脫離人類控制並且具有自我複製功能的機器人。它並不是一個現實威脅。這就是未來幾十年的現實。而且就算未來真的出現了現實威脅，我們也可以輕易改變方向。”

Eric Horvitz

埃裏克o霍爾維茨

Distinguished Scientist & Managing Director, Microsoft Research

知名科學家、微軟研究院常務董事

"There have been concerns about the long-term prospect that we lose control of certain kinds of intelligences. I fundamentally don't think that's going to happen. I think that we will be very proactive in terms of how we field AI systems, and that in the end we'll be able to get incredible benefits from machine intelligence in all realms of life, from science to education to economics to daily life."

“有人擔心未來我們可能會失去對某些智能的控制。我認爲這種情況不大可能發生。我認爲在使用人工智能系統這個問題上，我們會非常積極主動的。而且最終在人類生活的方方面面，從科學到教育到經濟，再到日常生活，我們都能享受到機器智能帶來的驚人效益。”

Deborah Johnson

黛伯拉o約翰遜

Anne Shirley Carter Olsson Professor of Applied Ethics in the Science, Technology, and Society Program in the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at the University of Virginia

維吉尼亞大學工程與應用科學學院科學、技術與社會項目倫理學教授

"Presumably in fully autonomous machines all the tasks are delegated to machines. This, then, poses the responsibility challenge. Imagine a drone circulating in the sky, identifying a combat area, determining which of the humans in the area are enemy combatants and which are noncombatants, and then deciding to fire on enemy targets.

“如果完全自動化的機器成熟了，所有任務可以依賴這些機器自行完成。那麼這首先會帶來職責上的挑戰。設想一架盤旋在空中的無人機，能自動識別戰鬥區域，並確定戰場上的哪些人是敵軍、哪些是平民，然後自行決定向敵軍目標開火。

"Although drones of this kind are possible, the description is somewhat misleading. In order for systems of this kind to operate, humans must be ns make the decisions to delegate to machines; the humans who design the system make decisions about how the machine tasks are performed or, at least, they set the parameters in which the machine decisions will be made; and humans decide whether the machines are reliable enough to be delegated tasks in real-world situations."

雖然生產這種無人機是可能的，但這種描述具有一定的誤導性。這類系統要想順暢運行，人類是必須要參與的。人類要做出這些決策，然後將任務委託給機器。設計這套系統的人類要決定機器怎樣完成任務，至少也要設定相關參數，來對機器的決策進行限定。另外在真實的環境中，人類還要判斷機器是否足夠可靠，能否委以重任。”

Michael Littman

邁克爾o利特曼

Professor of Computer Science, Brown University

布朗大學計算機科學教授

"To be clear, there are indeed concerns about the near-term future of AI — algorithmic traders crashing the economy, or sensitive power grids overreacting to fluctuations and shutting down electricity for large swaths of the population. There's also a concern that systemic biases within academia and industry prevent underrepresented minorities from participating and helping to steer the growth of information technology. These worries should play a central role in the development and deployment of new ideas. But dread predictions of computers suddenly waking up and turning on us are simply not realistic."

“要明確的是，的確有人擔心不久的未來人工智能會對人類產生影響——比如人工智能的交易商會導致經濟崩潰，或是敏感的電網管理系統對用電量的起伏產生過度反應，從而切斷了大量人口的用電。還有人擔心，學術界和產業界的系統性編見，可能導致代表性不足的少數派無法參與掌控信息技術的發展方向。在新理念的發展和部署過程中，這些擔憂應該會扮演重要的角色。但是很多人擔心計算機會突然醒來攻擊我們，這種擔憂是不現實的。”