智能城市的現實與幻象

By this time next year, we may have become disillusioned with the internet of things. The idea that every object — from toasters to street lights — could be connected to the internet and be communicating with us has been hyped for several years.

等到明年這個時候，我們或許就會對物聯網徹底幻滅。一切物品——從烤麪包機到路燈——都可以連接到互聯網與我們溝通的概念已經炒作了數年。

It reached a peak this month at the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where more than 900 companies exhibited connected products. Samsung, makers of products from fridges to phones, said that within five years all of its appliances would be able to connect to the internet.

今年1月在拉斯維加斯舉行的國際消費類電子產品展(CES)上，物聯網的概念更是被渲染到極致，900多家公司展示了聯網產品。製造商三星(Samsung)表示5年內旗下所有電器都將能聯網，其產品涵蓋了從電冰箱到手機等多種類別。

The predictions for the number of objects that will be connected are big — from technology research company Gartner’s forecast of 25bn connected physical objects by 2020 to tech company Cisco’s more bullish 50bn forecast.

據預測可聯網物品的數量將非常龐大，技術研究公司高德納(Gartner)預測至2020年將有250億種聯網物品，高科技公司思科(Cisco)更加樂觀，給出了500億的預測值。

Cue the ennui. Just as the internet hype of 2000 led to disillusionment, the internet of things will struggle to live up to expectations in the short term.

這開始令人覺得有點厭煩了。正如2000年對互聯網的炒作導致了幻滅，物聯網也難在短期內達到人們的期望。

Companies, certainly, remain unconvinced by the business case. A survey by Gartner of 1,500 chief information officers last August found that only 22 per cent had deployed or were experimenting with the internet of things.

當然，企業對物聯網的商業應用前景仍表懷疑。去年8月高德納對1500名首席信息官進行調查後發現，僅22%的人表示所在企業已經涉足或正在嘗試涉足物聯網。

The remaining 78 per cent either thought it irrelevant or at the too-early stage.

其餘78%的人或認爲物聯網並不重要，或認爲它還處於過早階段。

One problem is that the technology is still a little expensive, says Maurizio Pilu, partnerships director at Digital Catapult, a UK government organisation that helps support new projects.

Digital Catapult主管合作事宜的毛裏齊奧•皮盧(Maurizio Pilu)表示，問題之一在於物聯網技術還是有點貴。Digital Catapult是一家爲新項目提供支持的英國政府機構。

The price of a simple wireless sensor will soon be as low as £1, a price point at which this could become a mass-market proposition. But other parts of the kit, including communications and battery modules, might still come in at £20 to £40, which, Mr Pilu says, is too high.

一個簡單的無線傳感器的價格可能很快就會降至1英鎊左右，在這一價位上該商品有可能進入大衆市場。但包括通訊和電池模塊在內的其餘配套產品可能仍將維持在20英鎊至40英鎊的價位，皮盧表示這一價格仍然過高。

“It needs to become closer to £3 to £4, [then] the business case begins to make sense,” he says.

他說：“它的價位要接近3英鎊到4英鎊，（那時）應用到商業上纔開始具有合理性。”

Telecoms networks have to change to meet the requirements of billions of low-power devices that need to connect constantly to the internet to transmit small amounts of data. The cost of sending such data over the network will have to come down.

電信網絡必須作出改變，以滿足數十億個低功率設備的需求，它們需要持續聯網發送少量數據。因此在網上發送這類數據的費用必須降下來。

“It is not scalable for a low-cost device to pay several dollars a month just to have connectivity,” says Zach Shelby, director of technical marketing for the internet of things at Arm, the chip designer.

芯片設計公司Arm的物聯網技術營銷總監扎克•謝爾比(Zach Shelby)說：“每月光爲了讓一個低成本設備聯網就要支付好幾美元，這是無法推廣的。”

Security will need to be improved to ensure that internet-connected objects cannot be hacked and hijacked. Physical attacks over the internet are happening. At the end of last year the German federal office of information security revealed thatmachinery at a German steelworks was severely damaged when hackers gained access to control systems via the internet.

電信網絡還需要提高安全性，確保聯網設備不能被黑客攻擊和劫持。現在已經發生了通過互聯網發動物理攻擊的事件。去年年底德國聯邦信息安全辦公室透露，黑客通過網絡進入德國一家鋼廠的控制系統，使該廠機器遭到嚴重破壞。

When everything from traffic lights and cars to home heating systems are linked online, the potential for harmful hacks increases further. However, the simple, low-power devices used for the internet of things might not be able to handle heavy encryption, or may not be patched and updated if a security flaw is discovered.

等到從交通指示燈、汽車到家庭供暖系統的一切都連接上網，遭到破壞性攻擊的可能性將進一步增加。然而，用於物聯網的簡單、低功率設備或許無法處理高度加密，或當發現安全漏洞時，可能無法打補丁或更新。

“There are big security holes and quite a lot of work needs to be done to fix them,” says Jim Tully, analyst at Gartner.

高德納的分析師吉姆•塔利(Jim Tully)說：“電信網絡存在很大安全漏洞，還需要做大量工作來解決這些問題。”

Interconnectivity of devices is an issue that needs resolving. If your toaster cannot talk to your TV, or if the street lights are not on the same system as the rubbish bins, the networks will be less useful. Persuading all manufacturers to agree looks tricky, as a number of competing industry groups are each pushing their own standard.

還有一個要解決的問題是設備之間的互聯。如果烤麪包機不能跟電視交流，或者路燈跟垃圾箱不在同一個系統裏，物聯網的用處就沒那麼大了。說服所有制造商都同意互聯似乎是個棘手難題，因爲許多相互競爭的行業團體都在各自力推自己的標準。

“Everyone says ‘yes, lets ensure interoperability — as long as it is my version of interoperability’,” says Mr Pilu.

皮盧說：“人人都說‘好啊，讓我們確保產品可以協同工作——只要按我的互操作標準來。’”

The internet of things will raise privacy concerns, as it makes a fresh level of tracking and data collection possible. In the same way that companies and governments can follow what people do online — the websites they visit, what links they click — it will become possible to track almost everything an individual does in the physical world.

物聯網將引發隱私問題，因爲它可能將跟蹤和數據收集推上新的高度。同樣地，企業和政府可以密切注意人們在網上做什麼，比如他們瀏覽的網站，他們點擊的鏈接，屆時人們在現實世界中的所有行蹤幾乎都可以被掌握。

Companies are interested in the marketing possibilities this presents. Yet public opinion will have to decide whether there should be limits on what can be monitored.

企業對物聯網呈現的營銷前景很有興趣。然而公衆輿論將決定是否該對可監控對象設限。

While these issues are being resolved, large-scale internet of things projects are rolling out slowly. The projects with the clearest business case have to do with saving money on municipal street lighting and bin collection. General Electric says San Diego will save $254,000 a year by replacing some 3,000 street lamps with an intelligent lighting grid where each individual lamp can be remotely monitored and adjusted. The system makes it easy to pinpoint lamps that need changing and switch off those not in use.

隨着這些問題一步一步得到解決，大規模物聯網項目也在慢慢推出。具有清晰商業意義的項目涉及城市街道照明和垃圾收集的成本節約。通用電氣(General Electric)表示聖迭戈通過將大約3000盞路燈換成智能照明網，每年將節省25.4萬美元。智能照明網裏的每盞路燈可以遠程監控和調節。該系統方便準確找出需要換燈泡的路燈，以及關閉不使用的路燈。

Philadelphia, meanwhile, was able to reduce its rubbish collection costs from $2.3m to $720,000 in part by fitting rubbish bins with sensors that were triggered when the container was full, eliminating unnecessary collection trips to half-empty bins.

費城則可以將收集垃圾的成本從230萬美元減少到72萬美元，方案之一是給垃圾桶安裝傳感器，垃圾箱裝滿時即觸發傳感器，這樣可以不用在垃圾箱半滿時去收垃圾，減少不必要的往返。

More complex projects are still in a development phase. Milton Keynes in the UK will this year fit parking spots with sensors that tell drivers when the space is free. Mr Pilu, who is helping to launch the project, admits that it will be difficult to measure the return on an investment like this.

更復雜的項目仍處於開發階段。英國的米爾頓凱恩斯(Milton Keynes)今年將在停車場安裝傳感器，當停車場有空位時傳感器會通知駕駛員。皮盧正在協助開展這項計劃，他承認像這樣的投資很難衡量回報。

Medical and research uses are being explored. Research from AT&T, the US telecoms multinational, for example, has partnered with 24eight, which makes pressure sensors that can be embedded into shoe inner soles. They have distributed slippers with an internet-connected chip to elderly people at a care centre in Texas, and are using the foot movement data they receive to diagnose health problems, such as the initial stages of Alzheimer’s disease.

物聯網的醫療和科研用途正在探索中。比如美國跨國電信公司AT&T的研發部門與壓力傳感器（可嵌入鞋內底）製造商24eight達成合作。他們將內置聯網芯片的拖鞋發放給德克薩斯州一家護理中心的老年人，利用所收到的足部運動數據診斷健康問題，比如阿爾茨海默氏病的初期階段。

“In the early stages of Alzheimer’s you might get up to make a cup of tea but for a moment forget where you were going. That small wandering pattern, which others might not initially notice, could be an early warning sign,” says Mr Tully.

塔利說：“在阿爾茨海默氏症早期階段，你可能起身泡了杯茶，但過一會兒就忘了自己要幹什麼。這種輕微的精神恍惚狀態有可能是早期預警信號，但其他人可能一開始注意不到。”

He believes some of the “wacky” personal items on display at CES may evolve into industrial-scale applications. Vessyl, a cup that identifies any liquid poured into it, might sound like a toy for those wanting to keep tabs on their drinks intake. But what about applying the concept to a car and monitoring that the right fuel is in the tank?

他認爲CES展上一些“稀奇古怪”的個人物品有可能發展成工業級的應用。Vessyl是一款能識別出倒入液體的杯子，聽起來像是適合那些想監督自己飲料攝入情況的人使用的玩意兒。但假設將這一概念應用到汽車上，檢測油箱裏的汽油加得對不對呢？

“We will see hundreds of little applications that will be eventually woven together to make a smart city,” says Mr Pilu. “I believe this will develop in an evolutionary way.”

皮盧說：“我們將看到成百上千個小應用，它們最終將交織在一起，編織出一座智能城市。我相信這將以循序漸進的方式發展。”

But do not expect the internet of things to do spectacular things just yet. For the time being, expect more internet-connected bins and street lighting, while businesses work out just what else these ecosystems can do.

但是不要指望物聯網馬上就大放異彩。目前只能期待更多聯網垃圾箱和路燈，然後等着企業想出這些生態系統還能做到什麼。