世界移動通信大會聚焦5G前景

Barcelona in late February is a hunting ground for pickpockets, for it is there that members of the telecoms industry annually convene to show off their latest wares, some of which still have yet to be announced.

2月底的巴塞羅那是小偷的獵場，因爲電信行業人士在這裏召開年度會議，展示它們的最新產品，其中一些迄今仍未對外宣佈。

About 100,000 people will attend Mobile World Congress this year. Delegates will come from all sectors of the industry, including makers of the base stations that transmit phone signals, producers of the mobile devices that receive them and developers who make the apps that phones depend on.

今年的世界移動通信大會(Mobile World Congress)預計將有10萬人參加。代表們來自通信行業的各個領域，包括手機信號基站的建造商、移動設備的製造商以及手機應用程序的開發商。

High on the industry agenda is 5G, a network technology that aims to make data communication speeds significantly faster than its predecessor, 4G. Mats Granryd, director-general of the industry body GSMA, which organises the conference, says: “We will move away from being vague on the prospects of 5G this year to concrete proposals.”

行業議程上的一個重要議題是5G，這是一種旨在讓數據通訊速度遠超4G的網絡技術。主辦此次大會的行業組織——全球移動通信系統協會(GSMA)的總幹事馬茨?格蘭呂德(Mats Granryd)表示：“今年我們將不再對5G前景模糊不清，而是會有具體的建議。”

There could be up to 200 launches of so-called 5G-lite by carriers this year as they prepare for its arrival in 2019.

今年運營商可能發佈多達200個所謂的準5G產品，爲2019年5G的最終來臨做準備。

The coming of a faster network has been hailed as a possible boost for the telecoms sector, with Asian, US and European governments vying to take a lead in the new technology.

更快速網絡的來臨被認爲有望提振電信行業，目前亞洲、美國和歐洲各國政府都想在這種新技術上佔據領先地位。

A survey from UK telecoms company O2 predicts national 5G coverage would directly contribute an additional ￡7bn a year to Britain’s economy by 2026 and that the economic impact will be felt almost twice as quickly as that of fibre broadband, first tested by BT in 2009.

英國電信公司O2在一項調查報告中預測，到2026年，全國性的5G網絡覆蓋每年將會直接讓英國經濟規模額外增加70億英鎊，而且5G技術產生經濟影響的速度將幾乎是光纖寬帶的兩倍——英國電信(BT)在2009年首次試驗了光纖寬帶。

Network equipment makers at Mobile World Congress will try to deliver on the promise of a fully digital and constantly connected society. But the utopian vision of 5G has led some to question whether it will deliver all the services and economic benefits being promised, particularly as squeezed telecoms companies are as yet unwilling to stump up the projected funds to build the networks. These could cost Euro56bn in Europe alone.

出席世界移動通信大會的網絡設備製造商們將努力兌現“打造完全數字化、時時互聯的社會”的承諾。但5G的烏托邦色彩使得一些人質疑它能否帶來承諾的所有服務和經濟利益，何況陷入困境的電信公司迄今仍不願撥出預估的資金來建造網絡。僅在歐洲，建造這些網絡的成本就高達560億歐元。

One analyst quipped in the conference run-up that no network technology has been so talked about so early in the cycle. “That might be because there isn’t much else to talk about,” he says.

一位分析師在大會前夕諷刺地說道，沒有哪種網絡技術在這麼早的階段受到如此熱議。他說：“這可能是因爲別的沒有什麼可說的。”

Nokia will get in on the 5G act as the network equipment maker vies with Ericsson and Huawei to win orders for the new technology. However, the Nokia brand will also return to the consumer smartphone market for the first time in three and the half years since Microsoft bought its handset business.

諾基亞(Nokia)將尋求在5G領域分一杯羹，這家網絡設備製造商與愛立信(Ericsson)和華爲(Huawei)展開競爭，爭奪新技術的訂單。然而，諾基亞品牌也將重回消費者智能手機市場，這將是自3年半前微軟(Microsoft)收購其手機業務以來的首次。

Some are confident the new Android-based range — made by Finnish company HMD — will become a force to reckon with. New BlackBerry devices, made under licence by third parties, will also come to market, despite the Canadian company signalling it would exit the sector last year. Others think Samsung’s woes with its exploding Galaxy Note 7 last year could let them in. Hopefuls include second-tier makers LG with its G6, and Huawei with its P10.

一些人確信，諾基亞基於安卓操作系統的新產品——由芬蘭公司HMD製造——將不容小覷。授權第三方製造的新黑莓(BlackBerry)設備也將投放市場，儘管這家加拿大公司去年暗示將退出這一領域。其他人認爲，三星(Samsung)去年旗下產品Galaxy Note 7頻繁爆炸問題可能給了它們機會。有希望取得成功的公司包括推出G6的二線製造商LG以及推出P10的華爲。

Such products could attract hungry buyers. Professional services group Accenture, which surveyed 26,000 consumers worldwide, found 54 per cent planned to buy a new smartphone this year, with especially high numbers of possible customers in India and China.

這些產品可能吸引飢渴的買家。專業服務集團埃森哲(Accenture)對全世界的2.6萬名消費者進行了調查，發現54%的消費者今年計劃購買新的智能手機，印度和中國的潛在消費者尤其多。

That is welcome news for a market in which growth in 2016 slowed to 5 per cent from the 14 per cent posted a year before, according to research company Gartner. It also puts pressure on device makers to swim against the tide of what CCS Insight analyst Ben Wood calls the “sea of sameness”. As the Android software operating system underpins 82 per cent of smartphones sold, differentiation is difficult.

這在市場增長放緩之際是個可喜的好消息——高德納(Gartner)的數據顯示，智能手機市場2016年增長率從前一年的14%放緩至5%。這也給設備製造商們帶來壓力，它們要在CCS Insight分析師本?伍德(Ben Wood)所稱的“雷同之海”中逆流前進。由於市面上銷售的83%智能手機是安卓操作系統支持的，實現差異化非常困難。

David Sovie, global managing director for Accenture’s electronics and high-tech business unit, says features such as voice control should help sales. “Growing acceptance of services powered by artificial intelligence, such as voice assistants, is also fuelling this market upswing,” he says.

埃森哲(Accenture)電子和高科技業務部全球總經理大衛?蘇維(David Sovie)表示，語音控制等功能應有助於銷售。他說：“語音助理等採用人工智能技術的服務越來越獲認可，也讓這個市場更加興旺。”

The coming of 5G is likely to be the dominant conference talking point, even though the reality for many people around the world is that such a debate masks a daily struggle to get any sort of connection at all. Telecoms companies have started to discuss solutions, such as flying drones, or helikites, being deployed in remote areas of developed countries to deliver mobile broadband to spots land-based masts cannot reach.

5G的來臨可能成爲此次大會熱點話題，不過實際上對於世界上的許多人來說，這種討論掩蓋了他們日常難以獲得任何一種連接的問題。電信公司已經開始討論解決方案，例如在發達國家偏遠地區部署無人機或氦風箏(helikites)，將移動寬帶傳送到無法修建陸地信號塔的地方。

It is yet to be seen whether those people who object to brutalist mobile phone masts spoiling the countryside will welcome War of the Worlds-style drones, or if the promise of blanket coverage will be enough to keep complainers quiet.

有些人反對修建手機信號塔，認爲這種粗野建築會破壞鄉村面貌，這些人是否會歡迎《世界大戰》(War of the Worlds)式的無人機，或者地毯式覆蓋的承諾是否足以讓那些抱怨的人閉嘴，還都有待觀察。

The problem is more acute in the developing world, where connecting the unconnected remains a perennial difficulty. Facebook’s plans to deliver broadband across Africa suffered a setback last year when the SpaceX rocket carrying its $200m satellite exploded on the launch pad. The failure showed that delivering the latest in telecoms infrastructure is both expensive and tricky.

這個問題在發展中國家更嚴峻，在這些地區，“讓無法連接上網的人都能連接上網”仍是長期難題。去年SpaceX一枚載着價值2億美元衛星的火箭在發射臺爆炸，令Facebook向整個非洲提供寬帶的計劃遇挫。這一失敗表明，發展最新的電信基礎設施是一件成本高昂且棘手的工作。

Paul Lee, head of technology, media and telecommunications research at professional services provider Deloitte, says: “The world is getting more connected, but there are still billions to connect. Mobile connections are approaching the 5bn mark. So there are still over 2bn to go. There are also varying degrees of quality of connectivity. There are some 200 carriers yet to launch 4G services, but we are likely to see some operators launch 5G services this year.”

德勤(Deloitte)的技術、媒體與電信研究主管保羅?李(Paul Lee)說：“世界正變得更加互連，但仍有數十億人還無法連接。移動連接已接近50億大關，因此還有20多億人仍未實現連接。而且連接質量存在差異。目前大約還有200家運營商尚未推出4G服務，可我們今年就會看到一些運營商推出5G服務。”

This is not just a problem in remote places. More than 1m UK homes and businesses have what are deemed to be slow broadband access speeds, while 4G coverage is patchy even in cities. According to data from OpenSignal, a wireless company, the UK, once a pioneer in the mobile industry, now ranks 54th in global rankings of 4G coverage. “There is massive variation in mobile speed,” says Deloitte’s Mr Lee.

這不僅是偏遠地區纔會有的問題。超過100萬英國家庭和企業的寬帶接入速度被認爲是緩慢的，而4G覆蓋即使在城市也分佈不均。根據無線公司OpenSignal的數據，作爲移動行業曾經的先驅，英國如今在全球4G覆蓋排名中名列第54位。保羅?李說：“移動上網速度有着巨大差異。”

The GSMA’s Mr Granryd argues that pushing mobile data to more places is the “nuclear reactor” for improving people’s lives. The demand for portable “electronic money” so people can use phones to withdraw or transfer funds, for instance, has strongly taken hold in emerging markets where many have not had access to traditional banks. These have caught up with contactless wave-and-pay technologies available to bank card and phone users in countries such as the US and UK. There are about 500m mobile money users across 93 countries, mostly in Africa and Asia.

格蘭呂德認爲，將移動數據推廣到更多地方是改善人們生活的“核反應堆”。例如，對便攜式“電子貨幣”的需求在新興市場已經根深蒂固，人們用手機就能取錢或轉賬，而在新興市場許多人不使用傳統銀行的服務。這些支付技術已經趕上了美英等國銀行卡或手機用戶所使用的非接觸式感應支付(wave-and-pay)技術。全球大約有5億名移動貨幣(mobile money)用戶，分佈在93個國家，主要是非洲和亞洲的國家。

Christophe Uzureau, vice-president of banking and investment services at Gartner, says mobile finance has evolved rapidly. Different models have emerged but the most advanced, such as Alibaba’s Alipay in China, have added benefits, like assisting Chinese tourists with the processing of international payments. This evolution goes hand-in-hand with improved connectivity.

高德納銀行和投資服務副總裁克里斯托夫?烏聚羅(Christophe Uzureau)表示，移動金融發展迅速。如今已經出現了多種不同的模式，而最先進的模式帶來了諸多好處——例如中國阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的支付寶(Alipay)——比如協助中國遊客處理國際支付。這種進步與連接性的提高緊密相連。

The advent of 5G could accelerate development of digital services. But the GSMA says the industry also has to focus on the provision of more relevant local content if mobile is to blossom. As Mr Granryd points out, only 0.1 per cent of India’s web pages are in Hindi while more than 400m people speak the language. Hauling up masts alone will not be enough to make 5G a global success.

5G問世將可加快數字化服務的發展。但GSMA表示要使移動技術興旺發展，該行業還必須致力於提供更接地氣的本地內容。正如格蘭呂德指出的，印度只有0.1%的網頁使用印地語，而當地超過4億人講這種語言。只建信號塔不足以讓5G在全球取得成功。