僞心理學:從星座到手掌大綱
Psychology: Pseudo-Psychologies - From Planets to Palms
僞心理學：從星座到手掌Pseudo-psychologies ("pseudo-" means false) are dubious and unfounded systems of predicting behavior that superficially resemble psychology. What are some of these pseudo-psychologies? Why do some people accept them as valid?
僞心理學表面看上去像是心理學，但它預測人類行爲的機制既靠不住又沒有事實依據。僞心理學有哪些經典案例？爲什麼人們會相信它們是真的？Probably the most popular pseudo-psychology is astrology. It is based on the assumption that the position of the planets and stars at the time of a person's birth determines personality characteristics and affects behavior. Palmistry, another pseudo-psychology, claims that the lines in the hand are indicators of personality and the person's future.
最著名的僞心理學大概是占星術（星座論）。占星術的理論基礎建立在這樣一個假設上：一個人出生時行星的位置決定了這個人的性格並且會影響他/她的行爲。手相是另一種僞心理學，聲稱手上的線條昭示了這個人的性格和未來運勢。
Graphology, a third pseudo-psychology, indicates that personality is revealed by a person's handwriting. Although graphology is only moderately popular in the United States, some companies in this country use handwriting analysis to evaluate job applicants. Even though graphology is definitely valuable in detecting forgeries, careful test of accuracy in psychological studies have shown that graphologists score close to zero in rating personality.
筆體學是第三種僞心理學，認爲一個人的字跡能夠揭露性格。筆體學在美國還算流行，有些公司使用筆跡分析來評估應聘者。即使筆體學在鑑定贗品時非常有用，心理學的研究中對它進行的準確性測試顯示，在評估性格這方面，筆體學的準確性幾乎低至0。Another pseudo-psychology, phrenology, was started in the nineteenth century by a German anatomy teacher, Franz Gall. His theory was that personality was revealed by bumps on the skull. Phrenologists assumed that parts of the brain governed different personality characteristics. It was thought that - like muscles - parts of the brain that were used more often tended to get bigger. In turn, these enlarged areas pushed on the skull causing bumps. With advances in neurology, this was shown to be impossible, and phrenology declined. Although some brain areas do have specific functions, they are not directly related to specific personality traits.
另外一種僞科學顱相學始於19世紀，發起人弗蘭茨·格爾是一個德籍解剖學老師。他認爲，顱骨上的凸起可以揭露性格。顱相學家假設大腦的不同部分控制不同的性格特徵。就像肌肉一樣，多次使用的那部分大腦會變得比其餘的更大。接着，這些膨脹的區域對顱骨施加壓力，造成凸起。神經病學的先進研究已證實這是不可能的，此後顱相學開始衰落。雖然大腦的某些區域的確有特殊的功能，但他們與具體的性格特徵沒有直接聯繫。Why do these pseudo-psychologies survive and retain their popularity? One factor is the P. T. Barnum effect. P. T. Barnum, a famous circus showman, had a formula for success - "Always have a little something for everybody." Read the following personality description.
爲什麼僞科學依然存在而且如此熱門？其中一個原因便是巴納姆效應。巴納姆是一個著名的馬戲團演員，有個成功公式：“永遠有一點對每個人都適用。”閱讀下面的性格描述：You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused energy, which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Your sexual adjustment has presented some problems for you. Disciplined and controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have some doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed-in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept others opinions without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times, you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times, you are introverted, wary and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.
你強烈的需要別人喜歡你，崇拜你。你傾向於對自己嚴格。你有很多還未使用的潛力，還沒有來得及成爲你的優勢。你有一些性格上的缺點，但大體上你能補償它們。外表上你遵守紀律，很有自制力，但內心裏你會憂慮，沒有安全感。有時你會懷疑你自己是否做出了正確的選擇或者做了正確的事。你願意接受一定程度的改變和多元，但一旦有條規限制，你會感到不滿。你爲你自己的獨立思考能力而驕傲，並且在沒有令人滿意的證據時不輕易接受他人的觀點。你認爲過於坦誠地向他人暴露自己的真實想法是不聰明的。有時候你外向，和藹，合羣，但有時候你內向，謹慎，保守。你有一些非常不切實際的抱負。Does this describe you? A psychologist read this summary individually to 79 students, who had taken a personality test. Of the students, 29 said the description was "excellent." 30 said it was "good," 15 said it was "average," but only 5 said it was "poor." Thus only 5 of the 79 thought the description - supposedly determined from the personality test - was inadequate.
這一段是否描述了你？一個心理學家單獨向79名進行了性格測試的學生閱讀了這份總結。其中29名認爲這份描述“極好”地描述了他們的性格，30名認爲“還不錯”，15名認爲“一般”，只有5名認爲“不好”。79名學生中只有5名認爲性格測試出具的這份結果不夠好。Barnum's method works because of the fallacy of positive instances. Because people tend to remember whatever confirms their expectations and forget the rest, an illusion of accuracy is created. If you still doubt this, read all 12 of the daily horoscopes in the newspaper for several days. You will find that the predictions of the other signs will fit you as well as your own. Although astrology has a highly developed system that makes it look like a science, studies have repeatedly shown it to have no scientific validity. In addition, astrologists still can't explain why the moment of birth should be more important than the moment of conception in determining personality. (It is most likely because the exact time of birth can be determined, but the moment of conception cannot.
巴納姆的理論之所以奏效是因爲正例謬誤效應。人們傾向於記下那些符合他們期望的，無論那是什麼，而忘掉剩下的，因此產生這份描述“準確”的錯覺。（注：所謂的正例謬誤效應，是指人們由於只關注與自己期望相符的信息而忽略其他信息所產生的知覺錯誤。在生活中，正例謬誤效應有很多實際的體現，當你看錶時，你是否會覺得“怎麼老是11：11（或者是其他你覺得特殊的數字）”而實際上，如果你記錄每次看錶時的時間，你會發現這個特殊數字並沒有比別的時間多。要克服正例謬誤效應比較難，因爲人天生喜歡相信神奇的事情，況且大多數情況下對方給出的都是一些取悅你的話（無批判接受順言 uncritical acceptance），你是女的就說你氣質好，男的就說你有天賦，人又是自戀的，想不相信都不行。）如果你依然對此持懷疑態度，請連續幾天閱讀報紙上12個星座的每日星座運勢，你會發現其他星座的預測就像你自己星座的預測一樣，與你的情況相符。儘管占星學有一套發達的系統，它看起來像是真正的科學，但研究已經一而再再而三的證實占星學和科學根本沾不上關係。而且，占星術依然無法解釋在決定性格時，爲什麼出生時刻比懷孕時刻更重要。（最有可能的解釋是出生時間可以被確知，而懷孕時間不能確定。）For most people, astrology is a harmless and entertaining pastime. However, uncritical acceptance of any system leads to problems. Rather than trying to "put down" those who believe in these pseudo-psychologies, this article is trying to make you a more critical observer of human behavior and to clarify what is - and what is not - psychology.
對大多數人來說，占星術並沒有害處，是用來消磨時間很有趣的方式。但是，不假思索的接受任意思想體系會導致問題。這篇文章的目的並不是試圖打倒那些僞心理學的信徒，而是澄清什麼是、什麼不是心理學，並希望你在觀察人類行爲時能夠更加謹慎。
