人到中年 五種最愚蠢的投資理財方式
You know the smartest things to do with your money. But what are the worst moves? What should you avoid?
自己的錢該怎麼打理才最明智，對此你一定心知肚明。但是你知道最糟糕的做法是什麼嗎？哪些是你應該避免的呢？
Weirdly enough, they are things that a surprising number of people are still doing─even though they probably know, in their heart of hearts, how foolish they really are.
奇怪的是，那些應該避免的事情卻有很多人仍然在做，而且人數之多讓人瞠目──儘管這些人在內心深處可能很清楚自己的做法實際上有多愚蠢。
Any list is going to be incomplete. But here are five to avoid.
想把這些蠢事一個不落地全列出來恐怕不可能。不過我們可以試着列出其中的五件。
1. 追求高收益率
What this country needs is a good 5% certificate of deposit. Instead the collapse in interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's policy of keeping them down for as long as possible, is driving people crazy─especially people who need to generate income from their investments.
美國這個國家需要的是收益率能夠達到5%的定期存單。然而，這裏有的只是利率的一降再降，以及聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)儘量將利率維持在低位的政策，這樣的現狀逼得人們愈加瘋狂──對於那些需要從投資中獲取收益的人而言尤其如此。
In these circumstances, people start to do really foolish things in the desperate hunt for higher interest rates. That includes taking on crazy amounts of risk, or investing in complex products they don't understand, in the hope of higher yields. The Fed is producing a bull market in scams, Ponzi schemes and associated rackets.
在此環境下，人們在絕望地尋找着更高的收益率，併爲此開始犯下着實愚蠢的錯誤。這其中包括爲爭取獲得更高的收益率而不惜承擔極高的風險、或是投資那些他們毫不瞭解的複雜產品。美聯儲正在打造着一個各類陰謀、旁氏騙局和欺詐手段層出不窮的牛市。
The Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned about an epidemic of bogus high-yield 'corporate promissory notes' being marketed to investors by scam artists.
美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)最近提醒投資者小心，目前市場中有一種由騙子發行的虛假高收益“企業本票”在大量傳播。
The Wall Street Journal's Jason Zweig highlighted the woes of those sold complex 'reverse convertibles,' a legal but complicated product with embedded risks. Eric Lewis, chief investment officer of Bedrock Capital Management in Los Altos, Calif., suggests that if you can't explain an investment to a friend, including what might go wrong, you should think twice.
《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)的傑森?茨威格(Jason Zweig)指出了那些賣出“反向可轉債”這一複雜產品的投資者所面臨的困境，“反向可轉債”是一種合法的金融產品，不過此類產品結構複雜，其本身存在着潛在的風險。加利福尼亞州洛斯阿爾託斯(Los Altos)的資產管理公司Bedrock Capital Management的首席投資長埃裏克?劉易斯(Eric Lewis)建議，如果你無法向自己的朋友解釋清楚一項投資，包括這項投資可能會面臨什麼風險，那麼你最好三思而行。
A high-yield bond fund such as the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund (HYG), which lends money to risky companies, sports a yield of about 5%. That's the maximum yield you can earn without taking on much more risk.
諸如安碩高收益率企業債交易所交易基金(iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund)這樣的高收益率債券基金爲風險較高的企業提供貸款，這類基金的收益率約爲5%。這是你在不承擔過高風險的情況下能夠掙到的最高收益率。
2. 傾家蕩產送孩子去私立大學讀書
Over the past 40 years, the cost of tuition and fees at a private university has tripled─after accounting for inflation. The cost of a public university has quadrupled.
過去40年來，美國私立大學的學費以及各種開銷增長了兩倍──扣除了通貨膨脹因素之後。公立大學的就讀成本則是40年前的四倍。
The cost of getting a bachelor's degree has become a scandal in this country. Students spend $160,000 on a four-year degree and the results are too often questionable.
在美國攻讀一個本科學位所需開銷數字之大，簡直成了這個國家的恥辱。學生完成爲期四年的學位攻讀需要花費16萬美元，而學習的效果往往還很成問題。
Financial planners strongly advise parents against plundering their own retirement savings, which they are likely to need, to pay for this.
理財專家們強烈建議學生家長們不要將自己的養老積蓄用來爲孩子付學費，這筆錢他們自己可能還用得着。
Admittedly, a degree has become a protection racket─you can't get a job without one, but there are fewer jobs for those with them. But the smart move for the budget-constrained is to get a bachelor's degree at a public university. The tuition and fees average less than $9,000 a year instead of $30,000 at a private college.
誠然，學位已經成爲一種護身符──沒有它，你可能找不到工作，不過即便有了學位，職場中能夠提供的就業機會也少了。而對於預算開支不那麼富裕的家庭而言，明智的選擇是去公立大學讀一個本科學位。讀一所美國公立大學每年所需的學費和各種雜費平均不到9,000美元，而私立大學則需要三萬美元。
3. 持有自己所工作企業的股票
This is one of the silliest and riskiest moves any investor can make. If the company hits trouble, you get whacked twice. You can lose your job and your savings─all in one fell swoop. Ask anyone who worked for Enron…or Lehman Brothers.
這大概是投資者能夠做出的最愚蠢、最冒險的舉動之一了。如果這家公司遇上麻煩，你將遭受雙重打擊。你可能會在丟了飯碗的同時，丟掉自己的積蓄──一杆子打翻一籃子的蛋。不信你去問問那些曾爲安然(Enron)、或是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)工作過的人。
The law, amazingly, actually encourages this crazy move. While employers' 401(k) plans are subject to punitive regulations, lest they allow you to take on too much 'risk,' employers are allowed to offer their own stock among the investment options. Many do.
令人驚訝的是，美國的法律實際上在鼓勵這種瘋狂的舉動。雖然企業的401(k)計劃受到監管部門監管，若企業讓員工承擔過高“風險”，則會受到懲罰，但是監管規定允許企業向員工提供企業自己的股票作爲投資選擇之一。而實際上許多企業也在這麼做。
The Employee Benefit Research Institute says that the percentage of 401(k) assets held in employers' stock has been halved since 2000, but the numbers are still alarming. Furthermore, it's the youngest workers─those best able to take a gamble─who are shunning their employers' company stock.
員工福利研究所(Employee Benefit Research Institute)表示，自2000年以來，401(k)資產中僱主股票的佔比已經減少了一半，不過目前的數字依然很驚人。而且，如今不願意持有自己公司股票的員工是那些最年輕的人，而這些人其實是承擔風險能力最高的人。
At companies where the 401(k) plan offers the option, workers aged 40 or over typically hold about 20% of their entire 401(k) account in the company's stock, according to EBRI data. Crazy.
根據員工福利研究所的數據，在那些於401(k)計劃中提供了持有本公司股票這一投資選擇的公司中，年齡在40歲或者以上的員工通常會將自己的401(k)賬戶中大約20%的資產用於投資本公司股票。這簡直是瘋了。
4. 過早支取社保金
If you can afford to delay taking your Social Security retirement benefit, do.
如果你有能力晚點支取自己的社保養老金，那麼就晚點吧。
Someone earning $50,000 a year who starts claiming Social Security as soon as he or she is able, age 62, will typically collect a monthly check of about $1,000, according to the Social Security Administration. If they wait until they are 70, that amount would double.
根據美國社會安全局(Social Security Administration)的數據，年薪五萬美元的員工若在自己年滿62歲這一支取社保金的規定年齡後即開始使用社保，則通常每月可以得到大約1,000美元。如果他們能夠等到70歲，那麼這個數字將會翻倍。
Taking Social Security too early, or without thinking through the consequences, is one of the biggest financial blunders people can make─roughly on a par with buying tech stocks in 2000 or a Las Vegas condo in 2006. The lure of getting money early can blind people to the big cost down the road.
過早支取社保金，毫不考慮後果，這是美國人可能犯下的最大的理財錯誤之一──其不明智的程度堪比在2000年買入科技股或是在2006年買下拉斯維加斯的一套公寓。早點拿到錢的誘惑可能會讓人們對未來即將付出的巨大代價視而不見。
(Many retirees may not have much of a choice. Hard labor at low pay over a lifetime takes its toll on a person. Also, many companies all but force older workers into early retirements.)
（許多退休者可能沒有太多選擇。一輩子拿着低薪從事着艱苦的工作，是很折磨人的。而且，許多公司幾乎是在強迫高齡員工早點退休。）
In any case, it doesn't take more than just a few years before the total money accrued with the higher, later benefits surpasses the total earned starting at the earlier retirement age.
無論如何，多等上些時候去享受更高的福利，這樣積累下來的數額用不了幾年就能超過在退休年齡初期即開始提取的全部社保金額。
But that understates the bigger issue. Social Security is insurance. For many retirees, the big risk isn't that they will run out of money before they turn 70, but after 85. According to the Centers for Disease Control, more than half of women currently age 65 will live to 85 or longer, and three out of eight men.
不過，這樣說會讓人們忽視一個更大的問題。社保金是一種保險。對於許多退休者而言，最大的風險不在於他們會在70歲之前沒錢了，而是在85歲之後。根據美國疾病控制與預防中心(Centers for Disease Control)的數據，目前年齡在65歲的女性中，超過半數的人將活到85歲甚至更久，男性中的這個比例爲八分之三。
David Blanchett, head of retirement research for financial research firm Morningstar, says it makes sense for women, married couples and those with good health to wait longer for a bigger paycheck.
晨星公司(Morningstar)負責退休問題研究的主管戴維?布蘭切特(David Blanchett)說，對於女性、已婚夫婦和那些身體狀況良好者而言，應該多等些時間以便得到更高的福利，因爲這樣做更爲合理。
5. 購買長期債券
A surprising number of people still subscribe to the flawed and circular argument that bonds, including long-term government bonds, are 'safe.' In reality, bonds─especially long-term government bonds─are the rare example of a bubble that has been explicitly declared.
令人吃驚的人，仍有很多人接受這樣的觀點：包括長期政府債券在內的債券是“安全的”。實際上，債券──特別是長期政府債券──是少有的一種已經被明確宣告的泡沫。
The Fed is openly printing money and using it to buy up such bonds, driving up the price and driving down the interest rates, in order to help the economy. There is no dispute about this. It's public policy.
美聯儲在毫不掩飾地大肆印着鈔票，並用這些印出來的鈔票買國債，從而擡高這類債券的價格，壓低利率，以便能夠幫助提振美國經濟。這一點毫無爭議。這是公開的政策。
A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.
30年期美國國債目前的收益率僅爲3.1%。這比長期通貨膨脹預期僅高出半個百分點。如果以過往的標準來衡量，30年期國債的收益率應該至少達到4.5%，比通貨膨脹率高出兩個百分點。
Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a 'real' or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.
30年期通脹掛鉤國債的“實際”年收益率，即扣除通貨膨脹因素後的收益率，爲0.6%。而以過往的標準來衡量，這一收益率應當是2%。
The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe haven.
購買這類債券的唯一理由只能是押注經濟會重現上世紀30年代那樣的大蕭條，而且會出現全球性的通貨緊縮。投資這類債券是在賭博，不是避險。
