給時代精神標一個價籤 Putting a Price on the Zeitgeist

In an analysis of the challenges that gallerists are facing, Marc Spiegler, the global director of the Art Basel fairs, suggested last month that about 80 percent of the artists selling well today would be “basically unsellable” in 20 years.

巴塞爾藝術展全球總監馬克·斯皮勒(Marc Spiegler)上月在一份分析畫廊所面對挑戰的文章中認爲，當今銷售情況良好的藝術家之中，有80%可能會在未來20年裏“基本上什麼都賣不出去”。

But that is perfectly fine, Mr. Spiegler wrote in The Art Newspaper, “because collecting contemporary art is about engaging with the zeitgeist.”

但這完全沒有問題，斯皮勒在《藝術報》(The Art Newspaper)上寫道，“因爲收藏當代藝術已經成了時代精神的一部分。”

It remains to be seen whether such a result will be fine with the thousands of buyers who have been led to believe that contemporary art is also a lucrative investment.

對於成千上萬名相信當代藝術是一種利潤豐厚的投資的買家們來說，這樣的結果是否能夠接受尚不分明。

But Mr. Spiegler’s pronouncement, coming at what he characterized as “a starkly transitional moment in the art world,” is a timely reminder of the extent to which collecting is, and always has been, a gamble.

但是斯皮勒的宣言正好在一個被他稱之爲“藝術界一個非常關鍵的過度時刻”做出，它及時地提醒人們，藝術收藏是、且一直都是一種賭博。

“People buy contemporary art for a range of reasons,” said Guy Jennings, the managing director of the Fine Art Fund Group, an art investment and advisory company in London. “And they aren’t under any illusions that all their artists are going to go up in price.”

“人們出於各種各樣的原因購買當代藝術品，”倫敦藝術投資與顧問公司“美術基金集團”(Fine Art Fund Group)總經理蓋伊·詹寧斯(Guy Jennings)說。“他們並不會幻想買下的所有藝術家作品都會升值。”

“But we have become more financially minded,” he said. “At times like these, buyers will be more cautious and look to artists they think will survive.”

“但是我們也變得愈來愈有經濟頭腦，”他說。“像這樣的時候，買家們會更加謹慎，尋找他們認爲可以生存下來的藝術家。”

Last week, as the financial markets were buffeted by concerns about a global slowdown, works by hundreds of postwar and contemporary artists were offered at London’s annual February auctions and exhibitions. With the economic outlook seeming increasingly bearish, which names should buyers back in the face of a possible downturn?

上個星期，對全球經濟放緩的擔憂嚴重地打擊了金融市場，與此同時，在倫敦年度的二月拍賣與展會上，展出了數百幅戰後與當代藝術家的作品。經濟前景日益下跌，面臨可能的低迷期，買家們應該關注哪些名字呢？

The results in London offered some clues. At Sotheby’s contemporary sale on Wednesday night, individual prices far above presale estimates created a sense that the market was still booming. Examples were the 16.1 million pounds, or about $23.2 million, given by a telephone bidder for Lucian Freud’s 1961 portrait of his pregnant 17-year-old lover, Bernadine Coverley, valued at ￡7 million to ￡10 million, and the ￡3.1 million for “The Sunflowers in 1937,” a colossal 2014 faux van Gogh painting by the highly regarded Adrian Ghenie.

倫敦拍賣會的結果顯示出了一些端倪。週三晚上，蘇富比的當代藝術品拍賣會上，幾個單件作品的成交價格遠高出預估價，讓人覺得這個市場還在繁榮期。比如一位電話買家以1610萬鎊（約合2320萬美元），拍下了盧西安·弗洛伊德(Lucian Freud)1961年爲懷孕的17歲戀人伯娜丁·卡芙利(Bernadine Coverley)繪製的畫像，該作品預估價在700萬至1000萬英鎊；而巨幅梵高仿作《1937年的向日葵》(The Sunflowers in 1937)拍出了310萬英鎊，作者是極受好評的艾德里安·格尼(Adrian Ghenie)。

Mr. Ghenie’s reputation was enhanced last year when he represented his native Romania at the Venice Biennale. Acquired by its seller less than two years ago from Galerie Judin in Berlin, “The Sunflowers” compellingly combines references to Nazi-era “degenerate art” with a monumental wall presence. Ten bidders pushed the price to more than five times the estimate of ￡400,000 to ￡600,000, reflecting the lengthy waiting list for Mr. Ghenie’s small output.

格林去年代表祖國羅馬尼亞參加威尼斯雙年展，因此聲譽有了極大增長。不到兩年前，這幅《向日葵》被這次的賣家從柏林的Galerie Judin畫廊買下，它驚人地結合了對納粹時期“墮落藝術”的映射，以及一面紀念牆的形象。十個拍賣者數次提價，把價格從預估的40萬到60萬英鎊提高了五倍，表明格林的作品有多麼供不應求。

Elsewhere, it seemed like wealthy buyers — and sellers — were keeping one eye on the high-end art and another on the financial market indexes.

此外，似乎富有的買家與賣家一面關注高端藝術市場，一面也在關注金融市場指數。

Overall numbers at Sotheby’s were down sharply. The 55-lot sale brought in a total of ￡69.5 million, 44 percent lower than the ￡123.5 million achieved at the company’s equivalent contemporary auction last February. Twenty-two percent of the lots were left unsold.

蘇富比的拍賣總額出現大幅下跌。這場拍賣會提供了55件拍品，總共拍出了6950萬英鎊，和公司去年2月在地位同等的當代藝術品拍賣會上拍出的1.235億英鎊相比，下跌了44%。其中22％拍品沒有拍出去。

Proceeds this year were dented by the 11th-hour withdrawal of a Gerhard Richter abstract valued at ￡14 million to ￡20 million. Neither the auction house nor a third party had been willing to risk guaranteeing the sale of such a high-value work in the current environment.

影響了今年收益的，主要是在最後關頭的時候，一件預估價爲1400萬英鎊到2000萬英鎊的格哈德·裏希特(Gerhard Richter)的抽象作品沒有拍出去。拍賣行與第三方都不願冒險擔保這樣一件高價作品在如今的環境下能賣出去。

“Rightly or wrongly, the capital markets determine confidence levels,” said Andrew Terner, a private dealer based in New York. “It’s the psychology of the moment. The timing has to be right.”

“不管是對的還是錯的，資本市場決定了信用等級，”紐約私人經紀商安德魯·特納(Andrew Terner)說，“這是當下的心理。時機必須正確。”

In midday New York trading on Friday, , Sotheby’s stock price was at $20.07 after having dropped 17.5 percent on Thursday.

週五的紐約午盤上，蘇富比的股價是20.07美元，比周四降低了17.5%。

Year-on-year results at Christie’s on Thursday evening were even more bearish. The ￡58.1 million total achieved from its contemporary sale was down 50 percent from the February 2015 auction.

佳士得週四晚的拍賣會結果與去年同期相比更是悽慘。這場當代藝術拍賣會總共拍出了5810萬英鎊，比去年2月的當代藝術拍賣會下跌了50%。

But if, in general terms, buying museum-endorsed art from the last 100 years — like a Richter or a Ghenie — still remains almost the only game in town for the wealthiest art collectors, what about the more speculative market for artists with emerging reputations?

但是，如果總的來說，過去100年裏，購買有博物館擔保的藝術品（如裏希特和格尼的作品）仍然是富有藝術收藏家唯一的遊戲，那麼針對聲譽鵲起的新藝術家們的相對更投機的市場又怎麼樣呢？

On Wednesday, Phillips held a day sale of 178 lots of 20th-century and contemporary art, and conspicuous by their absence were the “process-based” abstract paintings that had been the subject of lucrative resales at Phillips in the boom year of 2014. Once-hot names like Lucien Smith, Mark Flood and David Ostrowski were not in the catalog, and a small 2014 abstract by Dan Rees, “Gravelmaster,” estimated at ￡6,000 to ￡8,000, did not attract a buyer.

星期三，菲利普斯(Phillips)在日間拍賣會上拍出了178件20世紀與當代藝術品，引人注目的是，拍品中沒有被稱爲“流程基本”的幾位抽象畫家作品，它們曾在2014年的好年頭裏成爲菲利普斯的高額預拍品。盧西安·史密斯(Lucien Smith)、馬克·弗拉德(Mark Flood)與大衛·奧斯特洛夫斯基(David Ostrowski)等一度炙手可熱的名字都沒有出現在拍品名錄裏，一幅丹·里斯(Dan Rees)2014年的小型抽象畫《Gravelmaster》預估價在6000鎊到8000鎊，沒有吸引到買家出價。

This kind of abstraction was looking “basically unsellable,” leaving three bidders to contest instead a safer Rudolf Stingel mock wallpaper painting from 2005 — in highly commercial gold enamel — to a top price of ￡386,500, just above the high estimate. Most prices at Phillips were at the low estimates, but 72 percent of the works did find buyers.

這類抽象作品似乎“基本上賣不出去”了，三名拍賣者轉而競拍一幅更安全的作品：魯道夫·斯丁格爾(Rudolf Stingel)2005年有高價鍍金層的仿壁紙油畫，把價格擡到了38.65萬鎊，正好高過最高估價。菲利普斯拍賣會上的大多數拍品都以最低預估價成交，但72%的拍品都找到了買家。

Yet at the galleries that supply these auctions, collectors were continuing to pay significant sums for market-fresh works by artists who they think might still be in demand in the 2030s, or at least at the end of this decade.

然而在舉辦這些拍賣會的畫廊裏，收藏家們還在花費大筆金錢，購買新上市的藝術家作品，他們覺得到了本世紀30年代，至少是到了2020年左右，這些作品就會被市場需求。

The “Ecriture” paintings of Park Seo-bo, a pioneer of the recently re-evaluated Korean monochrome movement called Dansaekhwa, are on show through March 12 at White Cube Mason’s Yard in London. Fourteen of these contemplative calligraphic abstracts, ranging in date from 1967 to 1981, were released for sale by the artist, who is now 84, and all have sold for between $400,000 and $650,000.

韓國單色畫(Dansaekhwa)的價值這幾年正重新被世人認識，其先驅樸棲甫的作品《寫作》(Ecriture)將於3月12日在倫敦的白立方梅森苑(White Cube Mason’s Yard)展出。這一系列的14幅當代書法抽象作品是這位現年84歲的畫家於1967年到1981年期間創作的，已經全被售出，價格在40萬美元到65萬美元之間。

Nate Lowman, 37, is a New York artist whose 2011 “Marilyn” paintings, which cannily combine echoes of de Kooning and Warhol, resold for as much as $870,000 at auction in 2014. On Tuesday evening, the London gallery of Massimo de Carlo presented some 15 black-and-white paintings by Mr. Lowman derived from photographs of the elaborately patterned ceiling of his studio. Priced at $120,000 to $250,000, four of these paintings quickly found buyers, with several others on hold.

37歲的內特·洛曼(Nate Lowman)是一位紐約藝術家，他於2011年創作的《瑪麗蓮》(Marilyn)系列油畫巧妙地結合了德庫寧(de Kooning)與沃霍爾(Warhol)的影響，2014年重新拍賣時，拍出了87萬美元。週二晚上，倫敦瑪西莫·德·卡洛(Massimo de Carlo)畫廊將推出15幅洛曼的黑白油畫，素材來自他工作室花紋精美的天花板的照片。這些畫定價在12萬美元到25萬美元，其中四幅很快找到了買家，有幾幅沒能賣出去。

Something quite different was on offer at Condo, a new collaborative exhibition by 24 emerging galleries spread across eight spaces in London.

Condo是一個由24個新畫廊最近推出的合作展，在倫敦的八個空間舉行，提供了一些不同的東西。

The event, which began Jan. 16 and ends on Saturday, was conceived by Vanessa Carlos, a co-founder of the London gallery Carlos/Ishikawa, as a cost-effective alternative to fairs. Dealers from a range of countries paid just ￡600 to be guest exhibitors. Unlike at a fair, entrance for visitors was free. Prices for work were generally in four figures.

這項活動自1月16日開始，於本週六結束，它與藝術展會相比，可謂經濟實惠，創意來自凡妮莎·卡洛斯(Vanessa Carlos)，她是倫敦畫廊卡洛斯/石川(Carlos/Ishikawa)的聯合創始人。各國交易商花費600鎊，就可以成爲參展者。和藝術展會不同，參觀者是免費進入的。作品價格一般在四位數左右。

“The habit of collectors going to galleries has diminished because of art fairs,” said Tom Cole, a co-director of The Sunday Painter, a gallery in Peckham, in southeast London. “Trying to find alternative models to show a program and get a name out there has become more and more important.”

“由於藝術展，收藏家已經沒有進畫廊的習慣了，”西南倫敦佩卡姆的“星期日畫家”(The Sunday Painter)畫廊的總監之一湯姆·科爾(Tom Cole)說，“找到另一種展出項目的模式，推出新畫家，已經變得愈來愈重要。”

Mr. Cole said that about 500 people visited his gallery on the first Saturday of Condo, compared with the 10 or 20 who might attend the Saturday of a typical exhibition. Among his sales was “Not Too Clever Emoticon,” a 2013 sculpture made from a glass-panel heater by the gallery’s artist Rob Chavasse, priced at ￡4,000.

科爾說，在Condo展開展的第一個週六，有大約500人蔘觀了他的畫廊，平日裏週六大約只有10到20人來。他出售的作品包括《不怎麼聰明的圖示》(Not Too Clever Emoticon)，這是一件2013年的雕塑作品，由玻璃板加熱器製成，作者是畫廊簽約藝術家羅布·查瓦斯(Rob Chavasse)，標價爲4000英鎊。

Largely free from the commercial pressures of an art fair, Condo displayed works that could also be refreshingly confrontational. Arcadia Missa, also in Peckham, showed a joint multimedia installation combining works by the American artist A.L. Steiner, of the collective Chicks on Speed, and the British feminist artist Phoebe Collings-James. The latter’s 2016 sculpture “Oh My Darling, Clementine,” consisting of two glazed ceramic clementines in a plastic netting bag, was sold for a price between ￡1,000 and ￡2,000.

Condo幾乎沒有藝術展需要面對的商業壓力，展出的作品中不少都頗具挑釁性，令人眼前一亮。阿卡迪亞·米沙(Arcadia Missa)畫廊同樣位於佩卡姆，展出了一個聯合多媒體裝置作品，是由美國藝術家A·L·斯坦納(A.L. Steiner)與英國女權主義藝術家菲比·柯林斯-詹姆斯(Phoebe Collings-James)合作的，斯坦納屬於“Chicks on Speed”組織，柯林斯-詹姆斯2016年的雕塑《啊我親愛的小柑橘》(Oh My Darling, Clementine)是兩個閃亮的陶製小柑橘，放在一個塑料網兜裏，價格在1000英鎊到2000英鎊。

At this price level, collectors can happily engage with the zeitgeist, without worrying too much if the work they bought will be salable a few decades down the road.

在這個價格水平上，收藏家可以愉快地成爲時代精神的一部分，同時又不至於擔心這件作品到頭來要過幾十年才能賣出去。