中國大學畢業生可能搶走美國人飯碗

The arrival of hundreds of millions of cheap, diligent Chinese workers in the global economy saw America trade blue collar jobs for low cost t-shirts and toasters.

曾幾何時，全球經濟中出現的數億廉價而勤奮的中國工人見證了美國拿國內藍領就業機會換取廉價T恤和烤麪包機的歷史。

From 2000, the year before China entered the World Trade Organization, to 2011, the U.S. manufacturing sector shed 5.4 million jobs.

從2000年(這是中國加入世界貿易組織前一年)到2011年，美國製造業喪失了540萬個就業崗位。

DeMographic changes mean that China's labor force has already hit a plateau in size and will soon start to shrink. Manufacturing wages rose 20.1% in 2011, outstripping improvements in labor productivity. The price of U.S. imports from China has started to rise. That crimps the spending power of U.S. consumers, and fuels inflationary pressure.

人口結構的變化意味着中國勞動力規模已經停止繼續擴大，不久將開始萎縮。2011年，中國製造業工資水平上升了20.1%，超過了勞動生產率的增幅。美國進口自中國的商品已經開始漲價。這降低了美國消費者的消費能力，加大了通脹壓力。

Rising wages are also eating into margins, reducing opportunities for U.S. investors to tap easy profits. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Chinese exporters' profit margins have shrunk 20% to 30% since 2004. The real number could be even higher. Net margins for Hon Hai Precision Industry, producer of the iPad, fell to 2.4% in 2011 from 5.5% in 2004.

工資水平上升也侵蝕了利潤率，減少了美國投資者輕鬆賺取利潤的機會。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師估計，自2004年以來，中國出口企業的利潤率已經萎縮了20%至30%，實際數字可能更高。鴻海精密工業股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry, 簡稱：鴻海精密)的淨利潤率從2004年的5.5%降至2011年的2.4%。鴻海精密負責代工生產iPad。

Compounding the woes of white collar America, millions of cheap and diligent Chinese graduates will be jostling for a position in the global labor market. China is producing 6 million graduates a year, and is expected to have 200 million by 2030 according to estimates from the World Bank.

令美國白領更加痛苦的是，上千萬廉價而勤奮的中國大學畢業生將在全球勞動力市場和他們競爭同一個職位。中國每年的大學畢業生數量有600萬，據世界銀行(World Bank)估計，到2030年中國預計將有2億大學畢業生。

A massive increase in the global supply of high skilled workers in the years ahead could have the same impact as the surge in low skilled workers more than a decade earlier - denting employment and wage growth in the U.S.

和十多年前低技術工人數量激增所帶來的影響類似，未來幾年全球高技能工人的供應量大幅增加也將拖累美國的就業率和工資增長速度。

None of this is immediate and not all of it is inevitable. Despite a 46% increase in manufacturing wages in China since 2008, the cost of U.S. imports has only risen 2.6% - reflecting firms' capacity to improve productivity and swallow smaller margins. Language and cultural barriers mean China's professional workers will not put a ding in the global workforce as easily as their factory worker parents did. Rising incomes in China should also boost U.S. exports.

當然，上述影響並不會馬上顯現，也並非所有的負面影響都是不可避免的。儘管自2008年以來中國製造業工資水平上升了46%，但美國的進口成本僅上升了2.6%，這反映出企業提高生產率、消化利潤率降低的能力。語言和文化的障礙意味着和在工廠打工的父輩相比，中國的專業工人在全球勞動力大軍中佔得一席之地的難度會加大。

Still, such a profound shift in the labor market of the world's most populous country will not leave U.S. workers unaffected. In the first stage of China's development, America's blue collar workers lost their shirt. In the next stage, America's white collar could start to look a little grubby.

但在中國這樣一個全球人口最多的國家，其勞動力市場的深刻變化一定會影響到美國工人。在中國發展的第一階段，美國的藍領工人失去了他們的襯衫。在中國發展的下一階段，美國的白領員工看上去可能會有點邋遢。