蘋果供應鏈有危險,誰來救局?
Apple's (AAPL) share price was hit again Monday morning after several analysts reported that the company's orders to its suppliers are down. According to Topeka's Brian White, who monitors these things on a monthly basis, February's report was the worst on record.
蘋果（Apple）股價本週一又遭重創，原因是多名分析師報告稱，蘋果下調了對供應商的訂單。託皮卡資本（Topeka）分析師布萊恩?懷特每月跟蹤蘋果銷售業績，他指出，二月份的情況堪稱史上最差。UPDATE: The stock recovered, to say the least, at the end of the day. See Apple shares spike suddenly on high volume.
最新消息：蘋果股價又反彈了，至少當天收盤時是如此。請參閱《蘋果股票突然放量上漲》一文。Below: Excerpts from several analysts' Monday notes, plus what CEO Tim Cook had to say about such reports at Apple's January conference call.
下面是三名分析師在週一發佈的報告，外加蘋果首席執行官蒂姆?庫克在公司1月份電話會議上對這類報告的點評。
Brian White, Topeka Capital: February Apple Monitor Sales Miss Seasonal Trends. Final February sales for the Apple Monitor fell by 31% MoM, much worse than the average 8% decline over the past seven years, or when excluding a January Chinese New Year, down 15%. The Apple Monitor delivered the worst February we have on record. Most of the preliminary Taiwan Monitors experienced weaker than average trends this February including Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision with a 25% MoM sales decline in February. Maintaining $888 price target.
託皮卡資本分析師布萊恩?懷特：蘋果供應商2月份表現疲軟。蘋果供應商2月份的營收額環比下滑31%，而在過去7年，這一數字的平均值只有8%。即便將今年1月份的中國新年剔除在外，下滑幅度也高達15%。蘋果供應鏈交出了有記錄以來最差的2月份報表。絕大部分臺灣供應商2月份的表現都要差於往年，蘋果頭號供應商、鴻海精密儀器（Hon Hai Precision）也不例外。它2月份的營收環比下滑了25%。結論：維持（蘋果）888美元的目標股價。William Power, Baird Capital: Concerns mounting near term. Checks by Baird's semiconductor team suggest iPhone 5 and total iPad procurement orders near our shipment forecasts, but below consensus. This appears to be consistent with our growing demand concerns exiting Mobile World Congress and already below-the-Street estimates. Additionally, we now expect a higher mix of iPad Minis, negatively impacting revenue and margins. Maintaining $465 price target.
布拉德資本（Baird Capital）分析師威廉?鮑爾：蘋果近期情況堪憂。布拉德的半導體團隊指出，iPhone 5以及iPad產品的訂貨量接近我們此前的出貨量預測，但低於市場平均預期。隨着世界移動大會（Mobile World Congress）結束，我們預測市場需求或將放緩，而目前的數據似乎佐證了這一看法。蘋果的表現已經低於華爾街的預期了。此外，我們預測iPad Mini的銷量佔比將提高，蘋果營收和利潤率都將因此下滑。維持465美元的目標股價。Avi Silver, CLSA: Curbing our enthusiasm. Weaker iPhone trends continue to dictate the trajectory of Apple shares. We are comfortable with our Mar-Q estimates but lower our Jun-Q forecasts, reflecting lower iPhone sales and weaker iPad mix. Following a Jun-Q product lull, we expect new products (including iPhone mini) to expand Apple's emerging markets offering and return Apple to EPS growth in C2H. Also, increased cash returns could arrive in the next few weeks. However, a much-needed larger screen iPhone is unlikely in 2013, which could impact high-end smartphone share. Lowering price target to $505 from $575.
里昂證券（CLSA）分析師艾維?席爾瓦：我們的熱情有所減退。iPhone疲軟導致蘋果股價一路下滑。雖然我們對蘋果第二財季仍充滿樂觀，但由於iPhone和iPad銷售不佳，下調第三財季的預期不可避免。經歷了波瀾不驚的第三財季後，蘋果有望發佈新產品（包括iPhone mini在內）。它將有效擴大蘋果在新興市場的份額並使其每股營收重新上漲。此外，在接下來幾周，蘋果的現金回報率也會有所上升。不過，雖然大屏幕iPhone的呼聲很高，但在2013年仍無望上市，將影響蘋果在高端智能手機市場的份額。將目標股價從575美元下調至505美元。And finally...
最後是庫克的點評。Tim Cook, From Apple's fiscal Q1 2013 Earnings Call: "I know there has been lots of rumors about order cuts and so forth and so let me just take a moment to make a comment on these. I don't want to comment on any particular rumor because I would spend my life doing that but I would suggest it's good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what's going on." (Transcript)
蒂姆?庫克，蘋果2013年第一財季營收會議：“這幾個月有關我們訂單減少之類的傳聞一直不絕於耳，所以我有必要對此做出澄清。我不想單獨評論哪條傳聞，因爲這些傳聞太多，我一輩子都評不完。我只是建議大家，對有關蘋果生產計劃的任何傳聞最好都抱着懷疑的態度。我還要提醒大家，即便某些消息是正確的，但你絕不可能從中推出我們整體業務的狀況。因爲供應鏈非常複雜，而且我們每款產品都有很多供貨渠道，供應商的產量時刻都在變，供應商的表現也存在差異。初始庫存水平也可能發生變化。我的意思是，影響因素實在太多了，單靠某個數據點來判斷蘋果的現狀無異於盲人摸象。”（點擊此處查看庫克講話的全文）（財富中文網）
