做出重大商業決策的5個要訣

Leadership in any capacity requires a laser-like focus, complete awareness of the problem set, and a willingness to “move the needle” when faced with uncertainty. Leaders must, at any point, be willing to make a split-second decision with potentially long-lasting and profound impacts.

任何崗位的領導者都必須像激光那樣聚焦，充分認識問題，並且願意在面臨不確定性時“撥動指針”。在某些情況下，領導者必須在瞬間做出一項可能影響深遠的決定。

The challenge, though, is that not every leader is willing to make such decisions for fear of it being considered “wrong.” They think that once a decision is made it is interminable and irreversible, and that adapting down the road isn’t an option or, even worse, they’ll be fired for being decisive.

但問題在於，並非每一位領導者都願意做出這樣的決定，因爲他們擔心自己的決定被視爲“錯誤”。他們認爲，一旦做出某項決定，它就不可逆轉，無休無止。未來不可能再進行調整，或者更糟糕的是，他們會因爲自己的一時決斷而被公司解僱。

What’s wrong with this notion? Plenty. Here are five criteria to consider when making your next big decision:

這種想法有錯嗎？大錯特錯。做出下一個重要決策時，你應該對照以下五項標準：

1. The purpose of the decision

1. 決策的目的

In the military, there was (and still is) a pecking order of priority upon which decisions are based. The mission always came first, followed by what would serve the team, and finally, what would serve the individual. The individual always comes last because he or she was always the smallest link in the organizational chain. Playing to self-interest serves little purpose, and that’s not what a team or an organization is about.

軍隊中一直存在嚴格的工作優先順序，所有決策均以此爲基礎。任務始終排在第一位，之後是符合團隊利益的決定，最後纔是與個人利益有關的決定。個人要放在最後，是因爲在組織鏈中，個人永遠是最小的環節。利己主義沒有太大意義，在團隊或組織中不應該考慮個人得失。

2. Wrong is never permanent

2. 錯誤絕非永恆不變

Well, “never” is a strong word, but you get the idea. I’ve said before thatfailure is only determined by where you choose to stop, and it also depends on how that particular problem is perceived. The higher one ascends within an organization . For example, the same problem that appears tricky at one level may not necessarily be the right one to solve for at another. Seek as many viewpoints as you can to enhance your understanding of the situation.

用“絕非”這個詞或許有些過頭，但你應該能明白我的意思。我之前曾說過，失敗只是取決於你何時選擇停止，同樣也取決於人們如何看待具體問題。例如，在某個級別的人看來有些棘手的問題，在另一個級別的人眼中卻未必是亟需解決的問題。儘可能收集更多觀點，更加深入地理解具體情況。

3. Timeline to execution

3. 執行的時間線

There are internal and external influences that shape the feasibility of execution along a given timeline. Internal influences refer to the competency of you and your team to execute the decision in the time allotted, whereas external influences signify the driving forces that impact the deadline that you have no control over, such as weather, the economy or market demand.

內部和外部影響，會決定在給定的時間線內執行決策的可行性。內部影響是指你和團隊在給定的時間內執行決策的能力，外部影響則是指影響最終期限的推動力，並且這些因素超出了你的控制範圍，例如天氣、經濟或市場需求等。

You want to ask yourself two questions. First, “Is now the right time to decide?” If the answer is yes, then your next question is, “Am I capable of executing the decision?” If the answer is no then ask “why?”

你要問自己兩個問題。第一個問題是，“現在是做出決定的正確時機嗎？”如果答案是肯定的，再問第二個問題：“我能執行這項決策嗎？”如果答案是否定的，要搞清“爲什麼？”

4. Known unknowns and unknown unknowns

4. 已知的未知和未知的未知

These are the constraints surrounding the execution of your decisions.

執行決策時，你會面臨許多限制。

A known unknown is when you realize a specific intangible exists but can’t quantify how much, such as traffic (if you live in Los Angeles you know exactly what I’m talking about). For instance, you’re aware that rush hour in LA never really has an end point, so it could take you anwhere from 20 minutes to two hours to travel from A to B. The point is, you know that uncertainty exists but don’t know how much.

“已知的未知”是指你意識到一些無形限制的存在，但你無法進行具體量化，例如交通（如果你住在洛杉磯，你肯定知道我在說什麼）。例如，你清楚洛杉磯的交通高峯時間從來都沒有結束的時候，所以，你從A點到B點需要花的時間可能在20分鐘到2個小時之間。關鍵在於，你清楚不確定性的存在，卻不清楚這種不確定性的具體程度。

Unknown unknowns are when Murphy likes to throw another wrench in the mix that you simply can’t plan for, such as (continuing with the traffic example) a vehicle accident or engine breakdown.

根據墨菲定律，“未知的未知”就是你根本沒有計劃到的意外事件，比如（繼續以交通爲例）交通事故或發動機故障。

Try to identify all constraints as best you can so you know how to align them towards the purpose of your decision.

儘量明確所有限制因素，這樣你就知道如何讓它們有利於實現決策目的。

5. Resource accessibility

5. 資源的可用性

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. The result of any effort will depend in part on the resources used to execute it, so be sure to identify not only the primary resources available but also secondary ones, too. Every decision should have a contingency plan for when those unknown unknowns arise and deem your primary course of action obsolete.

如果你最初沒能成功，要不斷嘗試。每一次努力的結果很大程度上取決你執行計劃所使用的資源，所以不僅要確定可用的主要資源，還要確定次要資源。每一項決策都應該制定一項應對 “未知的未知”和主要行動方案失敗等情形的應急方案。

Decision-making can paralyze you if you’re not prepared. Tackle your next major dilemma using the aforementioned considerations and feel better about the decisions you come to.

如果準備不充分，你會被決策過程擊垮。處理下一個兩難境地時，考慮一下本文提及的幾項指標，或許會讓你對自己的決策更有信心。