鐵飯碗時代一去不返 New gig economy spells end to lifetime careers

The archetypal worker in an advanced economy used to be a man on a production line or a salaryman in a city office — a secure, yet repressed, cog in a machine. “A crowd flowed over London Bridge, so many/I had not thought death had undone so many,” wrote T.S. Eliot in The Wasteland, who once worked at Lloyds Bank.

發達經濟體的典型工人曾經是生產線上的工人或是城市辦公室裏的上班族——他們就像一臺機器中享受保障但卻被壓抑着的齒輪。“一羣人流過倫敦橋，這麼多，我從沒想過死亡毀滅了這麼多(A crowd flowed over London Bridge, so many/I had not thought death had undone so many)，”T匠縠斂祵(T. S. Eliot)在《荒原》(The Wasteland)寫道，他就曾在勞埃德銀行(Lloyds Bank)工作。

There are still millions of these, including many women, but the new world of work is both more exciting and less secure. There is greater variety, in both pay and conditions. A job is more likely to be part-time, temporary, freelance or self-employed. It may not be a job at all, in the way it used to be defined.

如今仍然有數百萬這樣的勞動者，其中包括很多女性，但是新的就業世界更令人興奮但保障性也更低。無論是薪資水平還是工作條件都更加多樣化。人們從事兼職、短期工作、自由職業或自我僱傭的可能性更大了。用過去的定義來衡量，現在的工作可能根本不算工作。

Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, lamented in a recent campaign speech the weakening of the US employment bargain that “built the greatest economy and the strongest middle class the world has ever known” — that “if you work hard and do your part, you should be able to get ahead”. As she observed, the “gig economy”, the growth of online platforms such as Airbnb and Uber on which people buy and sell services and jobs, “is creating exciting economies and unleashing innovation, but it is also raising hard questions about workplace protections and what a good job will look like in future”.

在最近一次競選演講中，美國民主黨總統候選人希拉裏克林頓(Hillary Clinton)悲嘆，“打造了世界上迄今最大經濟體及最強中產階級”的美國職業契約，即“只要努力工作併發揮自己的作用，就可以獲得成功”的契約，如今受到了削弱。正如她所說，“零工經濟”(gig economy)——Airbnb和Uber等人們在上面購買和出售服務及工作的互聯網平臺的增長——“正在創造着激動人心的經濟並釋放了創新，但這也帶來了關於工作場所保護措施及未來該如何定義好工作的嚴峻問題。”

The gig economy is only part of a shift in employment over the past three decades, unleashed by technology and global trade. It has created many winners and losers, both by outsourcing jobs from the west to Asia and Africa, and by changing the terms on which most people work. Financial and contractual risk that used to be borne by companies has been transferred to employees.

“零工經濟”只是過去30年發生在就業領域的轉變的一部分，這一轉變是科技和全球貿易帶來的。通過將工作從西方外包到亞洲和非洲、以及改變多數人的工作條款，這種經濟催生了很多贏家和輸家。過去由公司承擔的財務和合同風險，如今已經轉嫁給了僱員。

“Gone is the era of the lifetime career, let alone the life-long job and the economic security that came with it, having been replaced by a new economy intent on recasting full-time employees into contractors, vendors and temporary workers,” Nick Hanauer and David Rolf wrote recently in Democracy Journal, although the US jobs statistics do not yet reflect such a transformation.

“終身制職業的時代一去不復返，更不用說其附帶的‘鐵飯碗’以及經濟保障了，取而代之的是一個決心要將全職員工轉換爲承包人、供應商及臨時工的新型經濟，”尼克哈諾爾(Nick Hanauer)和戴維圠爾夫(David Rolf)最近在《民主期刊》(Journal of Democracy)寫道，儘管美國就業數據尚未反映出這種轉變。

Yet this world of insecurity and risk is also one that many people seem to appreciate. More self-employed people in Europe and the US report enjoying their jobs than those who are employed. Many entrepreneurs, even those who run a tiny business that amounts to self-employment, like their freedom and self-reliance and the possibility that they could become wealthy.

不過，如今這個沒有保障且充滿風險的就業世界，似乎也是很多人所青睞的。在歐洲和美國，自稱享受工作的自我僱傭勞動者多於全職僱員。很多創業者，甚至那些經營小本生意的人（相當於自我僱傭），都喜歡這種自由、自力更生以及有朝一日可能發財的感覺。

There is a lot of potential in the new world of work. The McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the management consultancy, estimates that what it calls “online talent platforms”, job sites such as and platforms such as Uber, could add 2 per cent to global gross domestic product by 2025, increasing employment by 72m full-time equivalents.

新型就業世界存在很多可能性。管理諮詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)旗下的研究機構——麥肯錫全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)預計，到2025年，包括等招聘網站以及Uber等平臺在內的“在線人才平臺”，有望貢獻2%的全球GDP，並創造相當於7200萬份全職工作的就業機會。

The UK has added 1.4m “micro-firms”, those with between zero and nine employees, since 2000. The Freelancers Union, a US employee group, estimates that 53m Americans now freelance in some form, including 21m independent contractors. Some 82 per cent of millennials believe that the best days for freelancers lie ahead.

自2000年以來，英國增加了140萬家“微型企業”，即僱員人數在0至9人之間的企業。美國就業者組織“自由職業者聯盟”(Freelancers Union)估計，如今有5300萬美國人在從事某種形式的自由職業，其中包括2100萬獨立承包人。千禧一代中約82%的人認爲，自由職業者的最好時代即將到來。

The ideal working life for many millennials is not finding a safe job that will last them a lifetime but creating a technology start-up, a glamorous form of small business that is backed by angel investors. They dream of being Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook or Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google, not an executive of a professional services firm or public company.

對於很多千禧一代來說，完美的工作生活並非找到一份能夠做一輩子的穩定工作，而是創辦一家創業型科技公司——即那種由天使投資者出資、充滿魅力的小型企業。他們夢想着成爲Facebook的馬克丠克博格(Mark Zuckerberg)或谷歌(Google)的拉里槧奇(Larry Page)和謝爾蓋布林(Sergey Brin)那樣的人物，而不是專業服務機構或上市公司的高管。

The dream can be just that; the average income from self-employment fell 22 per cent in the UK between 2009 and 2014, even as self-employment contributed 732,000 of the 1.1m rise in total employment. The rewards of new forms of employment contract accrue to a minority, while others lose out.

夢想只能停留爲夢想：2009年至2014年，英國自我僱傭者的平均收入下滑了22%，儘管在此期間增加的110萬個就業崗位中，自我僱傭工作佔了73.2萬個。新型就業合同只讓少數人嚐到了甜頭，而其他人則成爲輸家。

The challenge for policymakers is to find a new form of employment contract that suits the changing workforce. Benefits such as pensions and sick leave are often attached to permanent jobs and increase with longevity. As jobs fracture, individuals who switch jobs, work as consultants or run “micro-businesses” with one or two employees need similar support.

政策制定者面臨的挑戰是找到一種新型就業合同，以適應不斷變化的勞動力。養老金和病假等福利往往是固定工作專屬的，並隨着工作年限的增加而增多。隨着工作性質的多樣化，那些打零工、做諮詢或者經營一家只有一兩名僱員的“微型企業”的人也需要類似的保障。

There are already legal rumblings.

現在已經有了相應的法律調整。

The Labor Commissioner’s Office in California ruled in June that Uber drivers were in effect employees, not independent contractors, as the company sees them. The UK government is raising the adult minimum wage and the New York Wage Board has recommended phasing in a $15 minimum wage for the state’s fast-food workers.

加州勞工專員辦公室(The Labor Commissioner’s Office)於6月裁定Uber司機事實上屬於員工而非Uber所認爲的獨立承包人。英國政府準備提高成人最低時薪，紐約州工資委員會(New York Wage Board)建議將該州快餐業員工的最低時薪設定爲15美元。

The task is to limit the downside of the new economy without curtailing job growth or preventing people from working in they way they prefer. There is a danger of romanticising the past benefits of permanent full-time employment and fixed-job contracts when many now want alternatives.

現在的任務是對這一新型經濟的不利之處加以遏制，而又不抑制就業增長或阻止人們以自己喜歡的方式工作。在眼下很多人都想要其他選擇的情況下，存在將過去全職終身僱傭制及固定工作合同的好處浪漫化的風險。

Few want to be a cog in a machine, even if they are given the chance. The new world of work must chart a course between the twin dangers of corporate conformism and worker exploitation.

幾乎沒有人想要成爲機器中的齒輪，即便他們有那樣的機會。盲從於企業與剝削勞動者是兩種相生相伴的危險，新的就業世界必須在這兩者之間開闢出一條道路。